A new study into mpox has suggested that beyond gay and bi men getting the vaccine, people cutting back on their sexual partners played a major role in curbing the spread of the virus.
In 2022, cases of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) exploded across Europe and the US. The disease is usually confined to parts of West and Central Africa. It soon became apparent that the virus was spreading predominantly between men who had sex with men.
Health authorities urged gay men to take advantage of an existing smallpox vaccine, which also limits the symptoms of mpox. Many queued up to obtain the vaccine. It’s administered as two shots given a few weeks apart.
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However, this new study found that viral spread began to decline before the vaccine roll-out had a big impact. Even before 10% of gay guys were vaccinated, mpox showed signs of peaking in the US.
They conclude that gay men temporarily reducing their number of sexual partners played a big role. It could be the main reason the mpox epidemic subsided as quickly as it did.
“Once the mpox epidemic was recognized, behavioral modification in the men-who-have-sex-with-men community resulted in a sharp decline in [the rate of transmission] in North America ahead of vaccination rollout in the U.S.,” concluded a team led by Miguel Paredes, an epidemiologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle.
The results appeared last week in the journal, Cell.
The spread of mpox in 2022
According to the CDC, in the US in 2022, there were 31,698 known cases of mpox and 56 deaths. The majority of deaths were in people who were immunocompromised, including those with HIV.
The outbreak was first reported in the UK in May 2022. Cases began to appear in the US later that month. It peaked in August 2022. Speaking to the New York Times, Paredes said this demonstrates that public health messaging can, “be really powerful to control epidemics, even as we’re waiting for things like vaccines to come.”
Those infected with mpox also develop a level of immunity from re-infection. Therefore, some high-risk individuals develop resistance without getting the vaccination.
The study used models, including flight data and genetic sequencing, to estimate when the outbreak occurred. They believe it likely started in the UK between December 2021 and March 2022, even if the first case wasn’t diagnosed until May 2022.
They go on to say that the outbreak began spreading in five distinct global regions before health authorities became aware. Because of this, rushing to introduce travel bans would have had little impact.
Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle, said the research highlights the importance of closely monitoring viruses and bacteria within the community.
“If we can catch emerging pathogens earlier on, like even weeks, it will make a big difference in terms of changing the course of these epidemics,” Dr. Bedford told the New York Times.
Are there still mpox cases in 2024?
Mpox has not disappeared and there are still cases popping up in the US. The CDC reports 312 cases so far in 2024. The states with the highest number of cases continue to be California and New York (34 and 77 cases so far in 2024 respectively). Both states were hotspots in 2022.
Doctors encourage all gay men to take advantage of the vaccine and to get both shots for maximum protection.
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