Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s campaign to secure the Republican nomination for President has received another blow. Until now, DeSantis has come second behind Donald Trump in polls of Republican voters. Admittedly, it was a far second, trailing Trump by anywhere from 35 to 50, yes 50, points. But still, he was ahead of the other Republican contenders.
However, in a poll conducted in New Hampshire, DeSantis came fifth in the ranking. The poll comes from CNN and the University of New Hampshire. It conducted a similar survey in July. Back then, DeSantis scored 23%. In the latest poll, he slips to 10%. That’s a 13-point drop.
In the latest survey, DeSantis is now behind Vivek Ramaswamy (13%), Nikki Haley (12%) and Chris Christie (11%). If it’s any consolation, DeSantis is still ahead of Senator Tim Scott (6%). Former VP Mike Pence and the other candidates are all on about 2%.
Researchers rang just over 2,000 voters and asked them about their intentions.
Donald Trump is still way ahead, at 39%. Although that’s a lesser lead than the former President enjoys nationally.
The poll comes ahead of the second GOP primary debate, due to take place next week in California. At the moment, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Pence, Haley, Scott and Christie have met the Republican National Committee’s criteria for participating. Trump does, too, but he has indicated he again plans to not participate, pointing to his huge lead in the polls as an excuse.
DeSantis and crime in Florida
In other bad news for DeSantis, former law enforcement officials in Florida have questioned one of his much-used claims. DeSantis is fond of saying that the state’s crime rate is at a 50-year low. He said it during the first GOP Presidential debate in Milwaukee.
A former FDLE employee told NBC News the data for making such a claim was incomplete and impossible to verify. The source said complaints were made to officials higher up who were pushing the claim as fact.
“The ethics of what we were reporting, we knew the numbers were bad,” they said. “We foot-stomped it to leadership over and over again; they did not care. They did not care.”
NBC spoke to three former employees, all of whom wished to remain anonymous.
“The governor’s office wanted to say outright that we were at a 50-year crime low and we told department leadership, verbally and in writing, that was not accurate because of the deficiencies in the data,” one of the former staffers said. “We went back and forth several times and we agreed, after being heavily pushed, to say we were trending in that direction.”
A spokesperson for FDLE disputed the allegation.
“Florida’s crime rate is indeed at a 50-year low, and criticism about FDLE’s robust data collection methods is unfounded,” Gretl Plessinger said. “Despite your assertions, no current or former employee has ever expressed concerns to FDLE leadership regarding the calculations.”
“Factually inaccurate”
What’s prompting the dispute over data? Since the 1970s, Florida’s law enforcement has reported on a “summary” basis. That means, if a crime involves multiple other crimes, only the most serious is reported for crime reduction figure purposes.
That changed in 2021, and now all crimes have to be reported. However, not all local law enforcement agencies have switched to the new methodology yet as they’re waiting for tech upgrades. That makes the crime data incomplete, according to the sources who spoke to NBC.
It’s not the first time DeSantis’ claims about crime rates in Florida have been questioned. In July, writing in Time, Hanna Love of Metro Bookings wrote, “The problem with these claims is that they are not only factually inaccurate, they also show just how little the presidential hopeful knows about crime in his own state—let alone the nation’s.”
Aiming for second place
The first Presidential primary, as always, will take place in Iowa. DeSantis is currently tracking to come second there. Until recently, his campaign team was spinning that as a positive.
“A strong second-place showing gives us an opportunity to go in[to] New Hampshire and show success,” a DeSantis official told Politico earlier this month.
This latest poll will surely force them to think again.
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