Poll says many Americans think thousands of NCAA athletes are transgender. The actual number is tiny.

The attacks on transgender women athletes remain prominent throughout the country as election day nears on Tuesday, with Republicans having spent an estimated $183 million on anti-trans TV ads in the midterms.

Even a few Democrats have spent campaign time and money criticizing trans women in women’s sports.

The spending is occurring despite only 1 in 10 voters telling AP that trans issues are among the most important issues this election. What’s lost in the debate is just how misinformed the public is about the number of trans women athletes currently competing.

The Bulwark and “Pablo Torre Finds Out” conducted a study on the prominence of trans athletes in the NCAA, and the numbers reveal a major juxtaposition between truth and perception.

Related

There are 510,000 NCAA athletes. Less than 0.002% are trans.
The number of trans athletes competing in the NCAA is tiny, especially compared to public perceptions and focus.

Get off the sidelines and into the game

Our weekly playbook is packed with everything from locker room chatter to pressing LGBTQ sports issues.
Subscribe to our Newsletter today

“The results show that 15% of American adults think that between 1% and 5% of NCAA athletes are transgender, and 14% of Americans think between 6% and 25% of student athletes are trans,” the study said.

“Those numbers are wildly inaccurate: In December 2024, NCAA President Charlie Baker told Congress that fewer than 10 of the NCAA’s more than 500,000 athletes were transgender — and the following February the NCAA restricted women’s competitions to athletes born as women. In a statement to ‘Pablo Torre Finds Out,’ an NCAA spokesperson confirmed that the current number of student-athletes competing in women’s sports who identify as transgender is effectively zero, in accordance with the … administration’s executive order forbidding their participation.”

To be fair, the question was poorly worded: “What share of athletes currently competing in NCAA sports do you think identify as transgender?”

The question did not ask about the number of perceived trans women competing, or them competing in women’s sports. The conclusion made by Bulwark is not supported by the study.

Still, some level of false perspective about the number of trans athletes competing isn’t hard to imagine. Many of the people likely answered thinking the question read as Bulwark suggested.

The false perspective could be a reason that polls show most Americans are uncomfortable with trans athletes in women sports because they believe more are competing than actually are.

Surveys have long shown that the public has misperceptions on a range of issues, and those misperceptions can influence debate.

Athletes weighing in on the subject is also part of it.

WNBA player Sophie Cunningham raised the profile of the issue this season when she talked about how she doesn’t support trans women in women’s sports. There has never been a transgender woman playing in the WNBA.

Related

Sophie Cunningham doubles down on opposition to trans women in women’s sports
WNBA player Sophie Cunningham repeated her opposition to trans women in women’s sports, said her comments are ‘common sense.’

Former NBA player Enes Kanter Freedom was another contributor to the debate when he said he was going to identify as a woman and embark on a WNBA career.

News often feeds off of rumors and speculation. When people hear politicians and athletes making a big deal out of trans women in sports, some believe what they’re saying blindly instead of actually researching for themselves.

Subscribe to the Outsports newsletter to keep up with your favorite out athletes, inspiring LGBTQ sports stories, and more.