“We’re going to have a tough time”: Top GOP official’s dire warning spells doom for Tr*mp in the midterms

Could Texas fall?

For years, the Lone Star State has been a tease for Democrats. Buoyed by its diversity and influx of young people, the biggest Republican-led state in the country seems destined to turn blue. The political prophecy almost came true in 2018, when Ted Cruz narrowly edged Beto O’Rourke in a tight Senate race.

But since then, Texas has turned rightward. Tr*mp has won the state by greater margins each time he’s run.

In 2024. he garnered nearly 2 more million votes (6.375 million) than he did in 2016 (4.68). That’s why the ominous warnings from a top Texas GOP official should be heeded.

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This week, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the second-ranked official in the state, said Republicans may lose the Texas House for the first time since 2003.

He issued his warning as part of a plea for party activists to coalesce around the winner of the upcoming GOP Senate run-off between Sen. John Cronyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton.

“Get over it and come together as one,” he said at a conference, per the Texas Tribune. “We’re going to have a tough time holding the Texas House.”

Currently, Republicans hold an 88-62 advantage in the House, and a 20-11 advantage in the State Senate. In the House, Democrats would need to flip at least 14 seats to win a majority.

Overall, Dems have flipped more than two dozen seats in Republican or battleground states since 2025. Deliciously, one of those districts encompasses Mar-a-Lago.

Ground zero for the GOP’s desperate redistricting push, Texas seems to represent the national mood. With Tr*mp’s approval ratings under water, Republicans will likely lose the House, and maybe the Senate, too. Democratic nominee James Talarico, who’s already a political star, could become the first Dem to win statewide in Texas since 1994.

That’s precisely why Patrick is sounding the alarm. Oh, let the horse race begin…

Who is Dan Patrick?

The fact that we’re quoting the Texas Lt. Gov. and not condemning him, should highlight the significance of his warning. Patrick is one of the most anti-LGBTQ+ politicians in the country.

He’s championed Texas’ own “Don’t Say Gay” law, a decade’s worth of anti-trans bills, and framed the battle over LGBTQ+ rights in biblical terms. In a recent campaign ad, Patrick boasts that he’s made Texas the “most conservative state in the nation.”

But Patrick’s arch conservatism might be exactly what’s driving Texas voters away.

A bruising Senate race

Despite being exposed as a corrupt adulterer, Paxton, the most anti-gay AG in the country, came within 1.2 points of knocking off Cronyn in the GOP primary. Their race will go to a run-off on May 26.

A four-term incumbent, the 74-year-old Cronyn oozes Beltway Insider. In recent years, he’s made a hard right turn to try and attract Tr*mp’s support. But so far, the president has withheld his endorsement.

Paxton better embodies MAGA’s ethos, right down to the womanizing and shady dealings. The Texas House impeached Paxton for using his office to benefit a friend and political donor who had helped him hide his extramarital affair.

His wife, a state senator, filed for divorce last year on “biblical grounds.”

As AG, Paxton has dedicated his career towards suing the federal government over LGBTQ+ protections, dating back to the Obama administration.

Much like Patrick, he’s helped turn Texas into a MAGA breeding ground. Meanwhile, James Talarico continues to lead general election polls…

Blaring warning signs

At the White House’s urging, Texas underwent aggressive redistricting and created five more right-leaning congressional districts. The maps were redrawn based on 2024, when high percentages of Latinos and young men voted for Republicans.

But trends nationwide, and in Texas itself, show that fragile coalition is breaking. Latinos have swung back towards Democrats in big numbers. The turnout in the Texas Democratic Senate primary between Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett reflect that.

In multiple Latino-majority counties, more voters were cast in the Democratic primary than for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Latinos comprise roughly 40% of Texas’ diverse population.

At the federal level, Texas Republicans may have cost themselves seats. Those consequences would likely trickle down to the rest of the ballot.

Tr*mp suffering major losses

This week, Tr*mp endured the worst night of his presidency With his tail between his legs, he announced a fragile cease-fire and withstood more electoral losses.

Even in deep red Georgia, the MAGA brand appears to be dying out. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s district swung 25 points towards the Democrat in a special House election for her seat. Dan Patrick was surely paying attention to those results.

Everything is bigger in Texas, after all, including the wipeouts.

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